At 8:40 p.m., with about 50 percent of the ballots cast in Texas’ Republican Primary counted, and 52 percent counted in the state’s Democratic Primary tallied, the New York Times is predicting that November’s general election race for governor will see Democrat Beto O’Rourke challenging Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for the state’s top office.

Abbott, who faced seven opponents in the GOP Primary, has 69.1 percent of the ballots that have been counted. His closest challenger is former state Sen. Don Huffines, who is trailing in a very distance second place with 11.4 percent. Former Texas GOP Party Chair Allen West is in third with 11.3 percent.

Huffines had been working diligently to out-right-wing Abbott, but just last week Abbott struck a blow for his right-wing credentials by sending Department of Family and Protective Service after transgender kids and their families and ordering health professionals, teachers and others to report trans youth who have supportive families and are receiving gender-affirming care to DFPS.

O’Rourke has claimed 92 percent of the ballots counted so far in the Democratic Primary. Of the other four candidates, the closest is Joy Diaz who so far has managed only 3.1 percent. Michael Cooper trails her in third, with 2.7 percent of the vote.

In another race of special interest to Texas LGBTQ community, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is struggling to avoid a runoff in his re-election effort. With 49 percent of the votes counted in the GOP Primary, Paxton leads his three challengers with 42.3 percent of the vote, which is not enough to avoid a runoff. Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman holds a narrow lead over Texas Land Commissioner (and presidential grandson/nephew) George P. Bush for second place, 21.2 percent to 20.8 percent. Congressman Louie Gohmert, famous for asking the U.S. Forest Service to alter the moon’s orbit to fight climate change, is a distant third with 15.7 percent.

Paxton is the one who cleared the way for Abbott to send DFPS after trans kids and their families last week by issuing a non-binding opinion declaring gender-affirming medical care for trans youth to be child abuse. His opinion has since been trashed by a wide range of experts and prompted plaintiffs represented by the ACLU of Texas to file a lawsuit.

It’s not likely, however, that it is Paxton’s transphobic opinions that have left him facing a likely runoff. The AG has been facing federal indictments on securities fraud charges since July 2015, and since late summer 2020 has been facing allegations of abuse of office and other criminal acts lodged by top Republican aides from his own agency. Paxton is under investigation by the FBI and is facing a lawsuit from former aides who claim he illegally fired them or forced them out after they reported him to the FBI.

In Dallas County, with early votes and absentee votes counted, Jasmine Crockett leads in the Democratic Primary race for Texas’ District 30 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, the seat being vacated by the retirement of longtime Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson, a staunch ally of the LGBTQ community. Crockett, who has EBJ’s endorsement, has 45.77 of the votes so far, with Jane Hope Hamilton in second place with 20.11 percent. Those numbers could change drastically, of course, as the ballots cast today are added to the count.

James “J. Frank” Harris and James Rodgers are running neck-and-neck for the GOP nomination in that race, with 33.15 percent and 32.51 percent respectively. District 30, however, has long been a Democratic stronghold.

Lauren Davis has a wide lead in the GOP Primary for Dallas County judge, with 68.68 percent so far, compared to Edwin Flores’ 31.32 percent. Incumbent Democrat Clay Jenkins is ahead of challenger Billy Clark, 88.67 percent to 11.33 percent.

If you want to see local results, go here for Dallas County, and go here for Tarrant County.

— Tammye Nash