‘Argo’ is the unlikely frontrunner for best picture.
For years, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences has tried to add some drama to the Oscarcast — hard, since by the time Oscar night rolls around, so many other groups have presented their awards, few surprises remain.
Well, this year, they finally may have achieved their goal — if for the wrong reasons.
With nine films nominated for best picture, but only five nominated for best director, there were bound to be some shut-outs, but the snubs of directors Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Top Hooper (Les Miserables) and Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) — all prior Oscar winners — in favor or two newcomers sent predictions into a tailspin. Add to that the continuing success of Argo in best picture competitions (Golden Globes and BAFTAs; the Screen Actors Guild’s equivalent, best ensemble) and Affleck’s own victory as director, not only is Argo the unlikely frontrunner for best picture, there is no frontrunner for best director.
So what’s gonna happen?
That’s what the Academy hoped you’d ask.
When the world goes upside down like this, almost anything is possible — especially in the best actress category, which is wide open, and best supporting actor, which looks like a two-man race but which could allow a spoiler. Here are your best bets to win the office Oscar pool (the Oscars will be presented Sunday night, broadcast on ABC):
NOTE: If you wanna challenge yourself with Oscar trivia from me, I’ll be hosting a show Sat., Feb. 23 on Facebook’s Hollywood Babylon fan site starting at 1 p.m. Central!
Picture: Who will win — Argo; Who should win — Life of Pi; Spoiler — Lincoln.
Director: Who will win — Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Who should win — Ang Lee, Pi; Spoiler — Michael Haneke, Amour.
Actor: Who will win/should win — Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Spoiler — none.
Actress: Who will win — Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Who should win — Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Spoiler — Naomi Watts, The Impossible.
Supporting actor: Who will win/should win — Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained; Spoiler — Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln or Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook.
Supporting actress: Who will win — Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables; Who should win — Sally Field, Lincoln; Spoiler — none.
Original screenplay: Who will win — Zero Dark Thirty; Who should win — Django Unchained; Spoiler — Amour.
Adapted screenplay: Who will win — Argo; Who should win — Lincoln; Spoiler — Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Cinematography: Who will win — Skyfall; Who should win — Life of Pi; Spoiler — Anna Karenina.
Film editing: Who will win/should win — Skyfall; Spoiler — Zero Dark Thirty.
Score: Who will win. should win — Skyfall; Spoiler — Argo.
Song: Who will win — Skyfall; Who should win — Chasing Ice; Spoiler — Les Miz.
Sound editing: Who will win/should win — Life of Pi.
Sound mixing: Who will win — Skyfall; Who should win — Life of Pi.
Makeup: Who will win/should win — The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.
Production design: Who will win — Anna Karenina; Who should win — Life of Pi; Spoiler — The Hobbit.
Costume design: Who will win/should win — Anna Karenina.
Visual effects: Who will win/should win — Life of Pi; Spolier — The Hobbit.
Foreign language film: Who will win — Amour.
Animated feature: Who will win — Wreck-It Ralph.
Documentary feature: Who will win — Searching for Sugar Man; Who should win — How to Survive a Plague.
Live action short: Who will win/should win — Curfew; Spoiler — Death of a Shadow.
Animated short: Who will win/should win — Head Over Heels; Spoiler — Fresh Guacamole.
Documentary short: Who will win — Redemption.
