At a time when momentum and pundits seem to favor Barack Obama for winning the Democratic presidential nomination, other indicators suggest the LGBT community’s support is still largely behind Hillary Clinton.
Texas is one of three large primary states remaining which pundits say Clinton must win to stay even with Obama in the contest to secure enough delegates to win the nomination.
The latest poll in Texas, conducted by CNN Feb. 15-17 among 529 likely primary voters,found Clinton just two points ahead of Obama. A poll of 600 "likely Democratic voters just a few days earlier, by the American Research Group, showed Obama ahead by six points.
Both polls had a four-point margin of error.
Even if the density of the gay electorate in Texas is half that of California which an exit poll earlier this month put at 4 percent it could make a difference.
Numerous efforts to get LGBT Clinton campaign staff on the phone or through e-mail during the past week to talk about their LGBT get-out-the-vote efforts went unanswered. Meanwhile, several LGBT supporters for Obama said they are enthusiastic about their activities in Texas and Ohio.
"I’m living and breathing it," said Eric Stern, a former head of the National Stonewall Democrats group who supported Democrat John Edwards until he dropped out of the race last month.
Stern says he has been "tasked" by the Obama campaign to "create and lead LGBT steering committees in Ohio and Texas." Stern and a small group of LGBT volunteers are planning events in gay-heavy cities in both states not to raise money for Obama, said Stern, but "just to talk to LGBT voters about why to support Obama."
In the once three-way race among Clinton, Obama and Edwards, Edwards ran first in Texas in terms of monetary contributions from in heavily gay zip codes, followed by Obama in second and then Clinton. The latest Federal Elections Commission report shows Obama with only a small advantage over Clinton in gay-heavy zip codes in Texas 52 percent versus 48 percent.
Most agree neither candidate can reach the necessary 2,025 delegate mark through the remaining primaries and caucuses. So much attention in the Democratic party including that of the National Stonewall Democrats has shifted to superdelegates. Those are the Democrats either elected to public offices or serving on various Democratic Party committees who have 796 of the 4,049 votes expected at the convention (assuming Florida and Michigan are not seated).
Stonewall last week released a list of 21 superdelegates who have self-identified as LGBT.
According to various media head counts, about 300 of the 796 superdelegates have not yet announced whom they will support for the nomination. Seven of those 300 are openly LGBT super delegates.
So, if the nomination comes down to superdelegates as many pundits speculate it will then the contest for superdelegates would have to be neck-in-neck for seven LGBT politicos to make the difference.
Could that happen? Apparently, it could.
Democratic Party leaders are increasingly voicing a sense of urgency that the nomination not come down to a split over superdelegates, but the Clinton and Obama camps appear to be in fierce disagreement over how to interpret various party rules that affect the delegate count.
For instance, Clinton thinks the party should suspend its rule that the delegates from Florida and Michigan not be seated at the convention (because those states ran primaries at dates contrary to party instructions). Why? Because Clinton’s been winning the big states.
And Obama wants to suspend the rule that provides for super delegates to make an independent judgment of who to support and, instead, force them to vote as their state or congressional district has voted. Why? Because Clinton is significantly ahead in lining up super delegate support, even in states where Obama won the popular vote.
The latest New York Times count says Clinton has 204 superdelegates to Obama’s 99. And according to Stonewall Democrats, that trend holds true among LGBT superdelegates.
Of the 15 LGBT superdelegates who have taken sides, 13 support Clinton and two support Obama.
The six uncommitted LGBT superdelegates are California State Sen. Carole Migden; New Hampshire state party Chairman Ray Buckley; Oregon state party Vice-Chair Frank Dixon; Wisconsin DNC member Jason Rae; David Hardt (of Dallas), president of the national Young Democrats of America; and Andrew Tobias, treasurer of the Democratic National Convention, from New York.
Party rules prevent Buckley, Hardt and Tobias from endorsing a candidate. Buckley says New Hampshire party rules preclude him from announcing an endorsement. Tobias, national treasurer for the Democratic National Committee, has a similar restraint. Buckley also says he has to support whoever is chosen by the convention and he doesn’t think the party will allow the fight to go down to the convention in August.
Frank Dixon, as vice chair of the Oregon Democratic Party, isn’t required to remain neutral by his state party rules, but for political reasons, it behooves him to remain neutral even though he has made up his mind. He said he will remain neutral at least until the votes have been counted in Oregon’s May 20 mail-in balloting.
Carole Migden of San Francisco acknowledges having "voted with vigor for one of the two candidates" during California’s Feb. 5 primary. But Migden says how she will vote as a superdelegate will be about what is best for the Democratic Party and she doesn’t expect to announce a decision before July.
Wisconsin native Jason Rae, at 21, is believed to be the youngest superdelegate and is among the most publicized.
He’s been the subject of numerous television and newspaper profiles, mostly because his support has been courted in small group meetings by both candidates and in phone calls from such powerful figures as former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.
Rae’s status as a superdelegate comes from his elected position as a Wisconsin representative on the Democratic National Committee. Although he did an internship at the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund in 2006, he’s only recently come out to his parents (last weekend), and he doubts that any of these officials were aware he is gay when he met them.
LGBT issues matter to him, but in his conversations with them, he was more focused on general electability issues and getting out the youth vote.
Although he did mail in his absentee ballot last weekend, he still hasn’t decided who to vote for as a superdelegate because, "I like both of them really well."
Some LGBT leaders believe gay voters can still make a difference at the primary ballot box.
John Marble of the National Stonewall Democrats group notes the organization has 10 chapters in Texas and Ohio and that the LGBT community in both states is "fairly organized." Noting that a recent exit poll in California and New York showed lesbian, gay and bisexual voters were 4 percent and 7 percent of the electorate, respectively, he said he expects the numbers in Texas and
Ohio to be "sizeable."
Randall Ellis, former executive director of the Lesbian Gay Rights Lobby of Texas (now known as Equality Texas), said he’s been plugging into grassroots organizations in Texas cities and finding a "very energized LGBT community."
Human Rights Campaign national field director Martin Rouse says "the difference between one or two delegates in this election could make a difference." And the LGBT vote will play a role, he said, "because it’s that close."
Of course, the impact of highly concentrated clusters of LGBT voters presupposes the community is behind one candidate, not split between two.
Most of the available concrete evidence still suggests that most of the LGBT community is backing Clinton. An exit poll on Feb. 5 found that 63 percent of lesbian, gay and bisexual voters in California and 59 percent in New York supported Clinton. In heavily gay neighborhoods which have already held primaries and which have results available, Clinton has had an edge. (She won in South Beach, Key West and Provincetown precincts, while Obama won in Chicago, Boston, and Northampton, Mass.)
An LGB consumer Web site survey conducted in November found likely LGB Democratic voters favored Clinton 63 percent to Obama’s 22 percent. And campaign lists of LGBT leaders who have endorsed the candidates show Clinton the clear favorite of most.
But as Obama supporter Stern pointed out, that doesn’t necessarily what will happen at the ballot box.
"Lists are great," said Stern, "but they don’t mean anything unless the campaign is making a concerted effort to make sure they’re including the LGBT community in every aspect of campaign."
© Lisa Keen. All rights reserved.
E-mail LisaKeen@aol.com
This article appeared in the Dallas Voice print edition February 22, 2008